Andy Morton

Analysis - Brazil bounces back for Anheuser-Busch InBev

By | 1 August 2013

A-B InBev released its H1 results yesterday

A-B InBev released its H1 results yesterday

Anheuser-Busch InBev's second-quarter results show that Brazil's beer market has come back on track sooner than expected, analysts have said.

The brewer yesterday (31 July) posted a 0.4% drop in beer volumes for Q2 while beer sales-per-hectolitre grew by 10% in the three months to the end of June. The numbers represent a marked improvement on Q1 results, when beer volumes dropped by 8.2%.

Stifel analyst Mark Swartzberg admitted today that he was “surprised” by the bounce back and expects A-B InBev's Brazilian subsidiary, AmBev, to raise beer prices in October.

“We understand too that, although June was better than July, both months were positive and much better than the down-mid to high single-digits of January-through-April,” Swartzberg said.

Nomura's Ian Shackleton said that better weather was behind Brazil's improvement, while last month's Confederations Cup added around 1% to the country's beer volumes. Yesterday, CEO Carlos Brito told analysts that the football tournament lifted Brazil's volumes by 300,000 hectolitres and was a useful “dress rehearsal” for next summer's World Cup, which he expects to add around 1.2m hectolitres to A-B InBev's volumes.

Shackleton also said thateconomic headwinds in Brazil appear to be softening and the easing of food inflation is having a “positive impact” on disposable income.

Expert analysis

The Future of Retailing in Brazil to 2016

Future forecasts and historic market data can improve market and strategic planning- Understand which channels and products will be the major winners and losers in the coming years. Know the share of sales between different products in your key channels and how this will develop- Assess the impact of economic recession and recovery on market growth

Sectors: Beer & cider, Company results, Emerging markets – BRIC

Companies: InBev

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