Analysis - Anheuser-Busch InBev ready for global beer revival
A-B InBev's Brazil unit AmBev is the market leader
Anheuser-Busch InBev is the best-placed global brewer to benefit from a rebound in the world's beer volumes next year, led by Brazil, an analyst has said.
A-B InBev, which control's Brazil's biggest brewer AmBev, can expect a 2% volume growth in the Latin American country next year, UBS's Melissa Earlam said in a note today (16 September). Brazil is on course for an estimated 1% decline this year, Earlam forecast.
Global beer volumes are expected to rise by 2.8% next year, up from this year's estimated 1.1% rise, Earlam said.
Brazil's beer market has stagnated over the past year but next year's FIFA World Cup, set to be held in the country, and returning consumer confidence are causes for optimism, according to Earlam. AmBev has 69% of the beer volumes in Brazil and 94% of the profit pool, according to UBS figures.
Earlam said that SABMiller is “very attractively positioned” for medium-term growth as 70% of its profits come from emerging markets. However, civil unrest in Colombia could damage short-term volumes while volumes in Peru may suffer from excise tax increases. SABMiller has 98% of Colombia's beer volumes and 94% of Peru's, according to UBS figures.
Heineken's exposure to weakening markets in Europe could hamper growth for the Dutch brewer, while Carlsberg continues to find trouble in Russia, which accounts for 37% of the company's profits, Earlam added.
An analyst today said that Carlsberg may have more room to revive beer volumes in Russia from 2015, when excise tax increases slow.
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