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Kirin Holdings' logic in agreeing to acquire a 50.45% controlling stake of Schincariol is being tested to the full. As we said last week, overseas acquisition openings in beer are declining and Schincariol is the best of a bad bunch of options to gain any kind of scale in Brazil's emerging beer market.
But, does this justify Kirin's decision to value Schincariol at 20 times the Brazilian brewer's earnings in 2010?
Surely, several factors would command a discount? Firstly, Anheuser-Busch InBev's AmBev runs that market, with a whopping 70% volume share. Secondly, Schincariol operates at the bottom end of the sector at a time when most analysts and brewers think that the growth lies in premium beer. Then, of course, we look inwards at the feud between Schincariol family members.
At the weekend, it was reported that a judge has suspended Kirin's purchase deal, pending a legal challenge from the remaining Schincariol shareholders. Even if the deal goes through, how will Kirin then forge a working relationship with those people, given this latest development?
The answer might be to buy them out, but that will cost even more money.
Amidst yet more H1 results last week, Kraft's announcement, that it is going to split its businesses, came as welcome respite from our number-crunching. It also led some analysts to suggest that PepsiCo may follow suit. At first glance, such a move would make sense for the soft drinks and snacks giant. But, no sooner had the idea been mooted, than PepsiCo told us late on Friday that such a move is a non-starter.
At least we now know.
Finally, your assistance is required once again. We have just launched our spirits brand rating survey. Could you spare five minutes, oh spirit-folk, to answer five questions pertaining to your view on certain spirits brands, please?
Look at it this way, it's not work, but it's still “technically” working.
Until next time...